(http://www.bloggang.com/viewdiary.php?id=noteperfect&month=04-2013&date=17&group=45&gblog=1)
1. Fib. Expansion Resistance
-161.8% Fib. level has been served as very crucial resistance as I further explain why that was the PEAK of this huge bullish rally.
-Also 138.2% Fib. level is working as current short-term resistance
2. Exhaustion & Break-away Gaps
-Exhaustion gap on 9/14. We continued bullish for days until $AAPL got exhausted and starting rolling over after hitting the Fib. Expansion level resistance.
-We followed by Break-away gap on 9/24. If we put both those two gaps together, you get the strongest reversal signal in chart patterns.
3. Island Reversal
-Island Reversal is the strongest reversal signal in chart pattern and its even stronger when it happens at the peak of a rally.
-It meets all the criteria that this is the Island Reversal
- Formed at the stop of this huge bullish rally
- Formed at Fib. Expansion resistance
- The break-away gap is STILL open
-This signal alone is BIG enough to make this thing TANK but we got more…
4. Possible Head and Shoulder
-We are possibly forming a right shoulder for this Head and Shoulder reversal pattern.
-This is extremely bearish if this is confirmed because..
- It is happening at the peak of its bullish trend (resistance of 161.8% Fib. Expansion level)
- The way it is forming, is a classic and textbook Head and Shoulder pattern.
5. “Evening-Star” Reversal (weekly chart)
-Forming a Evening-Star reversal on weekly chart
-Evening star often occurs after a long rally of bullish run
-When this reversal is confirmed, could be deadly
6. Bearish Divergence on Weekly
-RSI has fully confirmed Bearish Divergence
-MACD is now starting to confirm this Bearish Divergence
7. Bearish Divergence on Daily
-All three indicators are showing that Bearish Divergence is CONFIRMED.
-Divergence is very strong reversal signal especially when it is confirmed with other technical analysis such as Island Reversal
-Divergence is happening on weekly and daily which isn’t that common to see . It makes it that much stronger reversal signal.
8. Bearish Divergence..It Happened Before
-March 2012 – May 2012 about $115 drop after slight bearish divergence
-This wasn’t even the full or text book Bearish Divergence like the one we see today
-We did NOT have weekly divergence at this time but we do have weekly divergence shaping up today.
9. $110 Drop is Expected ($590 Target)
-Around $590 is my target.
-7/30 gap area support is perfect stop for that target.
-Earnings is 10/25 I believe. I don’t trade anything through earnings.
10. It All Makes Sense Because…
- It is all happening on top of everything.
- Each reversal signal confirms with another reversal signal.
- It is happening after a huge bullish rally.
- All reversal signals are happening at the top of the resistance (peak of the rally).
- I have not seen this MANY kind of reversals happening at once, this is absolutely AMAZING!
- I am not trying to disturb you or scare you but to warn you if you are too optimistic about this stock.
- In the big picture, $AAPL is bullish if you are an long-term investor.
- Corrective move/pull back/retracement is imminent but in worst case scenario $110 drop is what I am proposing.
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