Wednesday, April 17, 2013

10 ข้อที่เป็นสัญญาณขาลงแบบรุนแรง

บทความดีๆเอามาแบ่งปันกันครับ จาก Blog ของคุณ Note Perfect
(http://www.bloggang.com/viewdiary.php?id=noteperfect&month=04-2013&date=17&group=45&gblog=1)


1. Fib. Expansion Resistance


-161.8% Fib. level has been served as very crucial resistance as I further explain why that was the PEAK of this huge bullish rally.
-Also 138.2% Fib. level is working as current short-term resistance

2. Exhaustion & Break-away Gaps


-Exhaustion gap on 9/14. We continued bullish for days until $AAPL got exhausted and starting rolling over after hitting the Fib. Expansion level resistance.
-We followed by Break-away gap on 9/24.  If we put both those two gaps together, you get the strongest reversal signal in chart patterns.

3. Island Reversal


-Island Reversal is the strongest reversal signal in chart pattern and its even stronger when it happens at the peak of a rally.
-It meets all the criteria that this is the Island Reversal
  1. Formed at the stop of this huge bullish rally
  2. Formed at Fib. Expansion resistance
  3. The break-away gap is STILL open
-This signal alone is BIG enough to make this thing TANK but we got more…

4. Possible Head and Shoulder


-We are possibly forming a right shoulder for this Head and Shoulder reversal pattern.
-This is extremely bearish if this is confirmed because..
  1. It is happening at the peak of its bullish trend (resistance of 161.8% Fib. Expansion level)
  2. The way it is forming, is a classic and textbook Head and Shoulder pattern.

5. “Evening-Star” Reversal (weekly chart)


-Forming a Evening-Star reversal on weekly chart
-Evening star often occurs after a long rally of bullish run
-When this reversal is confirmed, could be deadly

6. Bearish Divergence on Weekly


-RSI has fully confirmed Bearish Divergence
-MACD is now starting to confirm this Bearish Divergence

7. Bearish Divergence on Daily


-All three indicators are showing that Bearish Divergence is CONFIRMED.
-Divergence is very strong reversal signal especially when it is confirmed with other technical analysis such as Island Reversal
-Divergence is happening on weekly and daily which isn’t that common to see . It makes it that much stronger reversal signal.

8. Bearish Divergence..It Happened Before


-March 2012 – May 2012 about $115 drop after slight bearish divergence
-This wasn’t even the full or text book Bearish Divergence like the one we see today
-We did NOT have weekly divergence at this time but we do have weekly divergence shaping up today.

9. $110 Drop is Expected ($590 Target)


-Around $590 is my target.
-7/30 gap area support is perfect stop for that target.
-Earnings is 10/25 I believe. I don’t trade anything through earnings.

10. It All Makes Sense Because…

  1. It is all happening on top of everything.
  2. Each reversal signal confirms with another reversal signal.
  3. It is happening after a  huge bullish rally.
  4. All reversal signals are happening at the top of the resistance (peak of the rally).
  5. I have not seen this MANY kind of reversals happening at once, this is absolutely AMAZING!
  6. I am not trying to disturb you or scare you but to warn you if you are too optimistic about this stock.
  7. In the big picture, $AAPL is bullish if you are an long-term investor.
  8. Corrective move/pull back/retracement is imminent but in worst case scenario $110 drop is what I am proposing.

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